Surplus Value Calculator: Contract Cost vs. Draft Slot Production
Compare a player's actual contract cost against the expected production value from their draft slot to determine surplus or deficit value.
Formulas Used
1. Expected WAR from Draft Slot:
Expected WAR/Season = 3.8 × e−0.018 × (pick − 1)
Logarithmic decay model calibrated so pick #1 ≈ 3.8 WAR/yr and pick #260 ≈ 0.15 WAR/yr.
2. Slot Bonus Estimate:
Slot Bonus ($M) = 10.0 × e−0.016 × (pick − 1)
Approximates MLB slot values; amortized over 6 years of team control.
3. Control Salary Scale:
Pre-arb years (1–3): $0.72M/yr (league minimum).
Arb year 4: 40% of market value; Year 5: 60%; Year 6: 80%.
4. Market Value of Production:
Market Value/Year ($M) = WAR/Season × $/WAR
5. Surplus Value (Draft Control):
Surplus/Year = Market Value/Year − (Amortized Slot Cost/Year + Avg Control Salary/Year)
6. Surplus Value (Contract AAV):
Surplus/Year = Market Value/Year − AAV
7. Surplus Value Index (SVI):
SVI = Market Value/Year ÷ Total Cost/Year
SVI > 1.0 = surplus; SVI < 1.0 = deficit.